KoinlyticsNearly every token launched in the last five years has locked allocations for teams, investors, and treasuries. Those locks unlock on a schedule. Unlocks are the most predictable supply-side event in crypto, and their impact on price is almost always underestimated at TGE and overestimated the day of.
Vocabulary
- TGE. Token Generation Event. The moment the token exists.
- Cliff. A period at the start where nothing unlocks. Then a chunk drops.
- Linear vesting. After the cliff, tokens unlock evenly over months or years.
- Circulating supply. What's actually unlocked and tradeable.
- Fully diluted valuation (FDV). Total supply �- price. If FDV >> market cap, huge unlocks are coming.
Standard patterns
- Team. 12-month cliff + 36 months linear.
- Investors (VC). 6-12 month cliff + 24-36 months linear.
- Advisors. Shorter, often 12-24 months total.
- Community. Immediate or milestone-based.
- Treasury / DAO. Long linear.
The 1-year unlock cliff effect
A huge percentage of 2021-2022 launches saw sharp drops around the 12-month mark. VCs and team members holding underwater tokens for a year rush to sell when they finally can. If circulating supply doubles overnight and demand is flat, price adjusts. Historical average drawdown 30 days after a major cliff: -40%.
How to time around unlocks
- Token Unlocks. Free site that tracks every major project's schedule.
- Position size down going into a known cliff. Rebuild after the dump settles.
- Prefer projects with unlock schedules already substantially completed.
- Look at FDV/mcap ratio. Ratio >3 means most tokens are still locked.
Cliff timing worth memorizing
- Airdrops with 4-year linear: constant slow drip.
- 2022 launches: unlocks running through 2026.
- New L2 tokens (2024): cliffs hitting in 2025-2026.